ATEC projects record mainland visitor arrivals to Macau in H2

A  forecast report predicts that in the second half of 2025, Macau will welcome approximately 38.5 million mainland visitors, accounting for roughly 70% of total visitors and potentially setting a new record.

The Asia Tourism Exchange Center (ATEC) recently released its 2025 Second Half Tourism Market Forecast Report for Hong Kong and Macau, reporting a notable rise in travel from both regions to the mainland. In the first half of the year, Macau residents took approximately 20.8 million trips, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase.

Of those, about 18.1 million were to the mainland, making up 86.8% of all outbound trips and reflecting an 11.6% increase.

According to the report, Hong Kong residents made 56.89 million outbound trips, a 14.9% year-on-year increase, with around 44.89 million of these trips to the mainland, accounting for 78.9% of total outbound trips and a 16.9% rise from the previous year.

Factoring in policy and market variables along with key activities, the report forecasts around 38.5 million visits from Macau residents to the mainland.

For the entire year, Hong Kong’s visits to the mainland are expected to total approximately 93.5 million, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 14.1%, respectively.

The ATEC analysis identifies several key factors influencing travel from Hong Kong and Macau residents to the mainland in the second half of the year, including the ongoing benefits of streamlined border clearance reforms, the boost to long-distance travel during summer vacations and extended holidays, and heightened interest driven by targeted promotions from online platforms and mainland provinces and cities.

The report also provides an overview of tourism trends and statistics for Macau and Hong Kong in the first half of this year. Macau welcomed over 19 million visitors, with a significant portion (13.77 million) coming from mainland China, reflecting an annual growth of 19.3%.

It is projected that, barring any major unforeseen events, this trend will continue in the second half of the year, which is expected to account for approximately 51% to 54% of the annual total.

Overall, mainland visitors to Macau are estimated to reach about 28.5 million for the year, while those to Hong Kong are projected to be around 38.5 million.

Earlier this month, the Public Security Police reported that during the July-August summer vacation period, Macau recorded 7.68 million inbound visitors, averaging 123,000 per day, with mainland visitors making up 75.8% of that total.

ATEC forecasts that mainland visits to Macau will reach a new high this year, potentially hitting 28.5 million. Key factors driving this growth include the sustained popularity of cross-border travel within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and increased appeal from the event economy.

Broader data from the National Immigration Administration highlights a significant rise in overall travel within China, with immigration authorities processing 333 million inbound and outbound travelers.

Additionally, domestic trips reached 3.29 billion, accompanied by substantial travel spending totaling 3.15 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector across the country, representing a 15.2% increase compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, the report indicates that the growth rate of foreign tourists visiting the mainland through the Hong Kong and Macau markets has accelerated significantly.

By the first half of the year, international visitors to Hong Kong and Macau increased by nearly 18% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. In the first quarter, the number of foreign tourists processed at the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge checkpoint rose by 22% compared to the same period last year, while visa-free foreign visitors surged by an impressive 122%.