Seaport flags record mass revenue in Macau, warns of 2026 deceleration

Macau’s casinos posted the strongest mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth in the first quarter of 2026 since the third quarter of 2024, though industry margins face ongoing pressures from high costs and reinvestments, Seaport Research Partners reported Tuesday.

In the January-to-March period, accumulated GGR in Macau reached MOP65.87 billion (USD8.16 billion), up 14.3% year-on-year but down 0.3% from the fourth quarter of 2025, according to government data.

Mass baccarat gross gaming revenue, a key mass-market indicator, climbed 6.5% year-on-year to MOP34.32 billion ($4.26 billion), with a modest 0.9% quarter-on-quarter gain, official figures showed.

Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky described the results as “better than expected… with the highest mass growth since the third quarter of 2024.” He highlighted Sands China Ltd. as leading year-on-year top-line revenue growth, followed by Wynn Macau Ltd., while Sands, Wynn, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. “likely saw the largest year-on-year EBITDA increases.”

Seaport estimated that market-wide earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose about 9% year-on-year, but the EBITDA margin dipped 0.3 percentage points from the prior year despite a sequential 0.1-point improvement – a decline of roughly 30 basis points. However, Umansky cautioned that the second quarter will bring tougher year-on-year comparisons, especially from May onward, leading to “material growth deceleration for the rest of 2026.”

Flagging eroding margins and Q2 headwinds, Umansky said, “The second quarter faces more difficult year-on-year comparisons starting in May, and Macau will experience a material growth deceleration for the rest of 2026.”

Looking ahead, Umansky expects cost pressures to ease, with operating expenditure growth in the 6% to 7% range. “We believe cost increases in 2026 will be more muted than experienced in 2025,” he stated in his memo.

Still, “Player reinvestment and agent commissions remain high, and we do not foresee any improvement in the market in the near- to medium-term, but likely see stabilization going forward,” Umansky said.

He added, “If higher-end or agent business grows faster than the market, then player reinvestment/commissions could see an increase relative to GGR.”

In this lower-growth environment, Umansky suggested casinos will prioritize “market share gains, operating expenditure control, and optimized player reinvestment and commission strategies.”